Climate-driven changes have already threatened more than half of Central Europe’s productive agricultural landscape

Droughts are a serious consequence of climate change, devastating ecosystems, along with the organisms and communities who inhabit them. Understanding the impact of this upon agricultural productivity is vital to ensure sustainable food supplies and local economies.

New research, published in Geophysical Research Letters, has explored proxy and historical data to model changes in agricultural climate (agroclimate) over the last 2,000 years and through the rest of the 21st century.

Dr. Max Torbenson, of Germany’s Johannes Gutenberg University, and colleagues combined carbon and oxygen isotope data from oak tree rings with instrumental weather data (daily temperature, precipitation, wind‐speed, relative humidity and hours of sunshine), as well as climate projections.

“Climate plays an important role in agricultural production,” Dr. Torbenson explains. “To understand what the future might hold in terms of climate, we must first assess the past and the range of conditions that the natural system can produce.

“Longer estimates, beyond the span of instrumental observations, are therefore crucial and tree ring-based reconstructions offer such information. The long oak tree ring isotope record from the Czech Republic is in many ways unique, in that it allows for the reconstruction of both temperature and rainfall separately.”

Within Central Europe, the researchers identified that more than half of agricultural land deemed highly productive in a long-term context has already been lost and will continue through the decades to come. Within the last 50 years, very hot and dry conditions have expanded in the southeast of Central Europe, affecting Slovakia, Austria and the Czech Republic.

Consequently, the highest productivity zones for regional agriculture have shifted northwards and westwards. Projections through the rest of the 21st century highlight the expansion of hot and dry conditions throughout the entirety of west Slovakia, where the country could face significant challenges for current crop production.

“The higher emissions scenario (the ‘business as usual’ scenario) would cause the biggest change to agroclimatic conditions, possibly pushing the whole region into the red,” Dr. Torbenson says. “However, it is worth noting that different climate models produce different results; although the direction of change is the same, the magnitude varies quite considerably. Conversely, the results for the low emissions scenario suggest that the 21st century could be very favorable for agricultural production.”

As suitable conditions alter, the types of crops possible to grow may also change, meaning growers must adapt their practices and infrastructure to cater for these varying demands to optimize yield and productivity.

The researchers note wine production could be positively affected as future conditions may be more favorable for grapevines. However, the production of “cash crops” such as sugar beet and cereals, including wheat, will likely suffer. Additionally, it could affect the health of grassland, which is open pasture for animal grazing.

Adapting the crops grown may not always be possible as large-scale changes in land use could be unfeasible, such as deforestation to create new agricultural zones, or creating them on slopes. Just because the climate in the region may be suitable, the practicalities of crop cultivation might not be.

The researchers also note case studies linking declines in agroclimate conditions with societal downturns. Extreme temperature changes in the late 1200s and early 1400s are both linked to historical records of famine in the Czech Republic. Meanwhile, records of poor grape harvests in the late 1500s are linked to anecdotal accounts of high social classes in Austria transitioning to drinking beer instead of wine.

Indeed, this is part of ongoing investigations where Dr. Torbenson and colleagues are collaborating with Czech archaeologists to compare their records of past agroclimatic conditions to changes in local settlement dynamics.

For now, this research is significant as the toll of temperature and precipitation changes on agricultural productivity could prove problematic in the face of rising food demand for an increasing global population, with some estimates suggesting it could increase by more than 50% by 2050.

Furthermore, it is not only drought that can affect food security, as fertilization, crop rotation, flooding and growing season length can also factor into both short and long-term agricultural outputs. Therefore, understanding the range of potential issues facing the agricultural industry means strategies to help minimize impacts can be explored.

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